The IT business is stacked high with liars, thieves and assorted vagabonds. By that I mean those who are skilled in the art of obfuscation to the point of not knowing fact from fiction yet peddling fiction as truth. Any company that needs to do that clearly has a problem which extends way beyond the rules of engagement in sales situations. Oracle has that dis-ease in spades.
On the front page of today’s Oracle website, a headline screams: Arby’s Selects Oracle Over SAP to Enable Business Growth. Now go to the press release. It doesn’t mention SAP once. Did they beat out SAP or was it a patriotic decision? A clue comes in the last line:
Arby’s is a cornerstone in American culture and we are pleased to play a strategic role in the company’s business expansion,” said Oracle Senior Industry Director for Retail, Gladys Lau.
And it isn’t being implemented to ‘enable’ growth but to ‘help’ according to the customer spokesperson. Those are two VERY different things.
Now let’s take a gander at Oracle’s financial statements. Or rather CEO Larry Ellison’s interpretation. Again, the front page headline: Oracle Grows 10x Faster Than SAP! That statement turns out to be untrue. The only area where it is correct is in a single figure – reported growth in applications software licenses from Q1 2006 ($127 million) to Q1 2007 ($228 million). Oracle is comparing apples and bananas. I can do that:
Winweb grew 350% in 6 months – outpacing all market competitors True, but it’s from a relatively low number. In one sense, it’s meaningless. As an aside, there will be an update on Winweb’s numbers in the next month.
In SAP’s case, it reported software revenues of €621 million ($790 million – or thereabouts.) The difference between what Oracle says and the reality is that underlying these figures are revenues from acquisitions. So where’s the organic growth?
I’ve no idea and unless someone has inside knowledge, no-one else has either. That’s because we don’t have a clear line of sight into the figures post acquisition of PeopleSoft or Siebel. The best I can say is that Siebel’s Q2 2005 license figure (the closest date for which figures are comparable) was $75 million. Mark Crofton at SAP takes a different perspective, suggesting the Siebel contribution has collapsed. Mark takes a different date which makes Oracle ‘look’ worse. I’ve not considered the PeopleSoft effect because it’s nigh on impossible given that acquisition was December, 2004. Others will say the balance in growth – whatever it was – is organic. Another year out and I may agree. Not now.
However way you cut it, Oracle is at best masking another reality and one it chooses not to discuss. Whichever view you take, Oracle’s posturing is mean and meaningless. Could you trust a salesperson who put those press releases into your hand as evidence of claimed superiority? More to the point, why does Wall Street continue to suck up this bulllshit without asking the hard questions?
And just to show I’m not totally biased, there is no doubting that Oracle had a great quarter, building on what happened in the earlier one following three shabby years. Well done. Now…do the market a favour. Forget the PR inspired rhetoric and get your customers out to talk about how great you are. They’ll appreciate you a lot more. Who knows, it might even be a good sales tactic?
UPDATE: Jason Wood provides additional perspective following the analyst call
Technorati Tags: Oracle, Oracle sucks, SAP
