Last week, Erik Keller was trying to get some sort of handle on open source (OSS) deployments:
Part of the challenge is that the traditional tracking mechanisms of revenue, installed customers, etc. are not easily perceived in open source. Open source has neither the flood of marketing dollars as does SaaS via Salesforce.com, RightNow Technologies, etc. nor does it have a set of industry-funded market watchers, both of which put it at a visibility disadvantage. Today, sourceforge.net is one of the few mechanisms by which the magnitude of open-source influence can be reviewed.
Erik then goes on to muse that an awful lot of money must have been diverted to OSS for which he uses a rough estimate of Compiere downloads. Around the same time, a bunch of us were having a discussion about the potential impact of packaged style OSS applications. All of us missed the publication of Economic Impact of Open Source Software on Innovation and the Competitiveness of the Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Sector in the EU. Yes I know – you’re terrified already. Fortunately, JP Rangaswami has flipped through all 287 pages and provides his unique perspective. But by far the most interesting analysis (for me) comes from Matt Asay over at Infoworld who says:
The existing base of quality FLOSS applications with reasonable quality control and distribution would cost firms almost Euro 12 billion to reproduce internally. This code base has been doubling every 18-24 months over the past eight years, and this growth is projected to continue for several more years
If you’re a proprietary software manager reading those numbers, you’ve got to be scared witless. Roughly $12 billion in software out there, doubling roughly every two years. Why would anyone pay you for your software when they will increasingly be able to get equivalent or better quality software for free, and spend their money on service, when they can (and not when the vendor dictates), not code? (Hint: They won’t.)
I’ve not read the entire report but like JP, have had a skim and then a dip into the pieces of interest to me. It is comprehensive, including a great section on the impact around innovation. It is unequivocal that real savings are there to be had. Savings that could be re-injected into IT budgets. The methodologies used appear sound and gratifyingly, the research is not funded by any software vendor that might have an interest in the findings. That makes me confident in the report’s authenticity. Despite its size, the report, which includes copious and detailed analysis, should be required reading for anyone setting an IT agenda. Especially people like Vinnie Mirchandani.
It implies the deepest areas of penetration are in the platforms and operating systems on which people run applications with Office style applications taking relatively high market share, especially in public sector. But The biggest shocker for me comes in remarks made at Slashdot, that ran a very sparing story on the topic. Leonard Ritter says:
I am 26. I started programming when I was 9. For 15 years, I was exclusively using non-free products. Since I switched to working with open source products 2 years ago, my productivity has boasted. I have more work-related contacts than ever. I participate in various projects. I learn so much…especially about working with other people. Because of those contacts, I get inside scoops and information that in non-free terms would be regarded as “classified”. I feel that I shape myself into someone who will be able to do quite good consulting one day. I can safely say that my knowledge has never grown this fast.
(My emphasis added.) Most folk I know think IT departments are an impediment to getting things done. Especially in large companies. I wonder how much their opinion would change if they could find folk like Leonard working on OSS projects. I wonder how different they feel about IT compared with those who spend their lives keeping the lights on?
I wonder how professionals would feel at the prospect of ditching proprietary systems like Microsoft offers in favour of OSS? If you think ‘pah – no way!’ then think again. According to the study, it is the smaller companies who are taking up OSS at the fastest rate.
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