August 2007

Making connections between wine, new IT and olive seeds

August 25, 2007 Innovation

Some will know that Hugh MacLeod has used the blogosphere to successfully spread the Stormhoek meme, quadrupling sales in the process…. Vinnie Mirchandani draws the comparison between a $3 wine which has been adjudged the best in California and the emerging class of low cost products and services: There’s a connection here…. More efficient airlines, the $ 2,000 car, the $ 100 (well ok, $ 175) laptop, the 15c a gb a month Amazon storage. Business 2.0 has a whole issue focused on the next generation of “disruptors” in different industries…Do either SAP or Oracle, so fixated on each other, see the disruptions happening in their market?Dennis Howlett’s response to Charles (see at bottom of article) is “Totally Oversold Excrement”.Fred Franzia would agree. He is the owner of Bronco Wine which makes Charles Shaw and other inexpensive wines…. Terroir don’t mean shit”Speaking of innovation, I learned today from my friend Jerome that we can burn crushed olive seeds in place of oil or gas…. Some of the olive trees in our area are more than 500 years old…. Jaen is a the largest single olive oil producing area in the world.

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Creative forecasting

August 25, 2007 General

As Blodget points out, Ms Meeker made a fundamental error in her first set of calculations…. According to Blodget:And now that the math has been fixed–and the calculation has produced an immaterial revenue estimate–the assumptions have been changed…. It’s quite common, and, used appropriately, it can be helpful: Mary’s new estimates are probably still too high, but they seem far more reasonable than those with yesterday’s assumptions would have.Now she has a new set of numbers…. The video has been watched more than 973,000 times so presumably a fair few people are curious…. Or they’re subliminal or…???Having said that, I remember when my first care home client came looking for finance…. Historical note: Mary Meeker was the analyst who thought that internet startups could be monetized based on the number of ‘eyeballs’ a company could muster…. Henry Blodget was the sell side analyst who pumped clients by day and slagged them off by night. A lot of investors believed Blodget’s daytime prognostications but were far from pleased by his night time revelations.

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Tips and tricks

August 25, 2007 General

Gene Marks, owner of a small CRM consultancy provides some great tips for acquiring software at BusinessWeek. Most of these are well known in the industry but it is always good to be reminded. The same is not quite so true if you are thinking about an on-demand or saas solution unless you are negotiating a large number of users in a single deal. The problem for on-demand vendors today is there is not enough service delivery experience to be certain whether a particular pricing profile is appropriate or otherwise. Direct price/cost comparisons are not straightforward, but they’re not impossible to calculate. Volume unquestionably has a part to play but the extent to which on-demand vendors will engage in discounting remains to be seen.

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FreeAgent intro video

August 25, 2007 General

FreeAgent CEO Ed has created an intro video I uploaded to blip.tv.

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Totally oversold excrement

August 24, 2007 General

Wearing my curmudgeonly hat inside the Enterprise Irregulars Google Group, I’ve been calling into question the stuff Oracle’s president Charles Phillips said to long time colleague Stuart Lauchlan…. Other colleagues Josh Greebaum and Anshu Sharma parsed and moderated:Dennis Howlett of AccmanPro called the claims outrageous leading to a debate on Enterprise Irregulars – and Josh Greenbaum who writes a ZDNet blog, in a rare feat, wrote the following response arguing for the facts in favor of Oracle and I quote him (with permission):Rising to the defense of Charles in a disagreement with Dennis almost sounds crazy, but here goes:The only really outrageous statement comes in the first graf:We’re not trying to preserve something from the 1970s like SAP is. As a company, we were in infrastructure first, then we moved into applications.Correction: SAP is not preserving anything from the 70s (except some of its founders, who ARE relatively well-preserved. And Oracle was NOT an infrastructure company first: they started in database, moved to applications (in 89) and then went into infrastructure.I have no problem with Josh’s remarks – it’s all part of the ebb and flow of debate among people of passion. I’ve since used that discussion as part of a more broad based post about how the ‘new’ meets the ‘old’ in times of technology transition over at ZDNet. So yes – I’ve spun the discussion – but in a different direction.Internally to the group, the discussion has continued with Josh discussing the mess Peoplesoft got itself into and how Charles Phillips – then one of the Wall Street analysts an outsider could rely upon – trashed Peoplesoft and what happened once Dave Duffield, founder and CEO passed the baton to Craig Conway…. Total Ownership Experience — aka totally oversold excrement.Too often in IT I see mutton dressed as lamb, companies with pig’s ears trying to turn them into silk purses or, as seems to be Oracle’s MO – just plain BS’ing your way through…. They’re not the only ones but they are the most egregious.Such forms of marketing begs yet another question: Why, if you’re doing well – as Oracle is – does it remain necessary to puke over the competition, make claims that are blatantly incorrect or wring every ounce of spin from outlying facts?

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Hecklers: a great debate

August 23, 2007 General

Julie Meyer, who made a mint out of First Tuesday before the tech bubble burst and Michael Cole, a PR person who advises Al Fayed.It’s very hard to compete with Richard’s command of facts and he almost immediately drew laughs from the audience at Mike’s expense. Mike made the absurd assumption the UK is benefiting because Wall Street is being given a hard time by the SEC and the Inland Revenue are giving foreigners a hell of a hard time over there…. Julie Meyer was almost immediately eviscerated by Richard’s ‘Wave the flag and pay the tax’ argument. Tim Congdon of Lombard Street Research put up what must only be described as the lamest argument of all: practicalities is the shape of there are too many people coming into the country and we can’t tax them all…. That’s a different issue.Michael Cole claimed the trickle down effect from rich to poor works…. Failed.Richard floundered a little under Tim’s barrage that centred on the viability of a simple residency rule.Richard’s best argument though was saved for the thrust of all Richard’ opponents when hew said that if the UK is the best place to operate on the basis of general economics and quality of life, then tax would not figure as a disincentive.As Alex said, one of the best floor commenters tax barristers Emma Chamberlain provided one of the best sets of comments:She said the debate was hampered by poor data. If we want to ditch the rules, we need to know what effect it will have.She added that there were plenty of US people who came to the UK who didn’t benefit from the rule, one reason for thinking a lot of people come here because it is a good place to do business. She also outlined some compromise ideas, the Swiss negotiated tax idea and also time limits on the rules.This is one that will run and run.

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Startup advice from an ex-Microsftie and Dave's 11 simple rules

August 23, 2007 General

One comment of note:…the only financial statements I ever saw at Microsoft were quarterly reports (as a shareholder), and even those were a mystery.That’s a monumental failure on the part of management. US quarterly reports take a certain skill to fathom and to deny staff an opportunity to understand what they’re reading is not my idea of being a good corporate citizen…. You’ll have much more influence over the development of an infant than you will a 30 year old, and the rewards should be commensurate.- If you refer to your company in the third-person, or have to ‘beat’ the system to be productive, it’s a bad sign. (One rumor at Microsoft was that your group should spend exactly 100% of its budget/headcount, otherwise ‘they’ would cut next years.)- Make sure your whole company feels like one team. Ballmer once joked at a company meeting, “Why do the different groups only clap for themselves?”- Be as important to the company as it is to you…. Be able change it!- And finally, to quote Paul Glen, “Never underestimate the power of free food.”I would extend the advice this chap offers with minor tweaks, to any SMB…. I’m currently thinking that social software – stuff like wikis and blogs – can go a long way towards allowing processes to develop naturally rather than be force fitted based on available software or proscribed management techniques…. This should not be news because when I read the biographies of the truly great business leaders, they all understood this at a deep and profound level.

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Vying for consulting attention

August 23, 2007 General

I see Brian Sommer is vying for attention as #1 outter of dubious consulting led sales practices. His main competition is GDIFC who has been strangely quiet this last month. While Brian’s take is very much tongue in cheek, there’s a lot of truth in his list of gems. My favourites: Bullshit detectors – When a consultant or IT salesperson exceeds a pre-determined quota of three-letter acronyms, buzzwords or 2-by-2 matrices, then prospects get a huge text message on their cell phones demanding they leave the meeting for some important consultation with a colleague. Now, consultants will never ever hear their prospects shout “Oooow my aching paradigm!”Automatic Overcommitment/Promise Counter – Don’t you wish your conference room had a counter to add up all of the things your prospective consultant says they can do? It’s amazing that there’s nothing you can throw at these super-beings and they still claim they can do it. They’ve got people with 20 years of experience in a brand-new Web 2.0 technology!… They can run your data center while polishing your shoes!Brian taunts VCs to come up with money to fund these innovations.

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50 percent of companies blocking Facebook

August 23, 2007 General

Jason Corsello notes that:50% of employees are being block from accessing Facebook at work, according to a new survey by Sophos, a world leader in IT security and control…Keep in mind, Sophos has a vested interest in the results as “[their] WS1000 appliance defends firms against web threats, and allows IT departments to block access to unapproved sites…. A few weeks ago, I tried to log onto Facebook from a Fortune 100 clients site with no success — it was blocked.It is a testament to the advances in management thinking over the last 20+ years that we still seem to be driven by the knee jerk reaction of attempting to kill something new. IT is a master of this and every time I hear such stories, I wonder what kind of infrastructure is IT running that they are afraid something like Facebook will break their existing systems. If you want to get data out of Facebook then you need an application capable of doing that…. The company has recently responded to criticisms about it letting developers create spamming applications. Ergo, the chances of someone compromising corporate data are at worst slim and at best remote. Of course there will always be some enterprising hacker who will find an entry point but honestly – how hard are you going to work to get maybe a handful of names? And yes, there have been the odd occasion when Facebook security has been breached.

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Making it up at Wells Fargo

August 23, 2007 General

Bloomberg is reporting a new twist on the FASB ‘mark to market’ fair value rules being used by Wells Fargo:”If you see a big chunk of earnings coming from revaluations involving Level 3 inputs, your antennae should go up,” says Jack Ciesielski, publisher of the Analyst’s Accounting Observer research service in Baltimore. “It’s akin to voodoo.”For San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, whose stock is up 5 percent this year at $37.37, last quarter was a veritable mark- to-make-believe feast.About $1.21 billion, or 35 percent, of its $3.44 billion in pretax income came from Level 3 net gains on the $18.73 billion portfolio of residential mortgage-servicing rights that Wells Fargo marks at fair value.Jacks’ always entertaining reading. It’s interesting that this story has been picked up by none other than Marc Andreessen – he of Netscape fame. Oh yes – guess the auditors who will have opined on this bit of financial magic? None other than our good friends at KPMG. Well done lads – good to see you keeping it up in the fiction category of financial reporting.On a more serious note, it seems FASB have handed filers a way of calculating fair value based on little more than whatever the directors decide. Crazy but entirely consistent with the market driven way in which business ‘rules’ are developed.

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