Comments on: Crowds are dopes. So are individuals. At times. http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:01:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Twitter « Analyst Views Weekly http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4829 Twitter « Analyst Views Weekly Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:27:13 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4829 [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...] [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...]

]]> By: Twitter | Blogs @ Northern Light http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4828 Twitter | Blogs @ Northern Light Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:23:58 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4828 [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...] [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...]

]]> By: Jasmin Tragas http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4827 Jasmin Tragas Wed, 28 May 2008 03:17:34 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4827 I enjoyed this post. Chewing on it. I also wonder if I get as much value out of Twitter now that I follow more people? It's a lucky dip some days. I enjoyed this post. Chewing on it.
I also wonder if I get as much value out of Twitter now that I follow more people? It's a lucky dip some days.

]]> By: Jon Husband http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4826 Jon Husband Wed, 28 May 2008 03:03:00 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4826 I like, appreciate and agree with the points you have made. There are imo relatively few people exploring the less-shiny-bits of what is called social media (as you have here), or the probability that some of its leading lights aren't necessarily all that smart ... just loud, prolific and lucky to have been in the mix when things got going. It's just a pity that you couldn't convey this analysis and conclusion in 140 characters or less ;-) (Disclosure: I am not someone who thinks every blog posts needs to be three paragraphs or less to read the whole thing ... I actually read this one twice). I like, appreciate and agree with the points you have made. There are imo relatively few people exploring the less-shiny-bits of what is called social media (as you have here), or the probability that some of its leading lights aren't necessarily all that smart … just loud, prolific and lucky to have been in the mix when things got going.

It's just a pity that you couldn't convey this analysis and conclusion in 140 characters or less ;-)

(Disclosure: I am not someone who thinks every blog posts needs to be three paragraphs or less to read the whole thing … I actually read this one twice).

]]> By: Brad King http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4825 Brad King Tue, 27 May 2008 04:53:56 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4825 Here's why I like Iowa, other than it's run by a university with researchers: We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance. Here's why I like Iowa, other than it's run by a university with researchers:

We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance.

]]> By: Dennis Howlett http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4824 Dennis Howlett Tue, 27 May 2008 04:52:24 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4824 Spigit offers a decent system but it is very much in the 'big league' Spigit offers a decent system but it is very much in the 'big league'

]]> By: Brad King http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4823 Brad King Tue, 27 May 2008 04:48:38 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4823 I agree with you on the point that what is out there is mostly irrational, particularly if people believe Digg and such are predictive in any way. I've not heard of GroupSwim, but I'll check it out. It would be worthwhile to find some predictive markets that we think are worthwhile. I agree with you on the point that what is out there is mostly irrational, particularly if people believe Digg and such are predictive in any way.

I've not heard of GroupSwim, but I'll check it out.

It would be worthwhile to find some predictive markets that we think are worthwhile.

]]> By: Dennis Howlett http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4822 Dennis Howlett Tue, 27 May 2008 04:45:24 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4822 What's not coming across as well as I'd like is the stuff I see swirling around and getting a lot of attention which to me seems irrational. I'm a fan of prediction markets but right now I'm not sure they're as well understood as they might be. The relative simplicity of GroupSwim is something that I can see has genuine appeal. What's not coming across as well as I'd like is the stuff I see swirling around and getting a lot of attention which to me seems irrational.

I'm a fan of prediction markets but right now I'm not sure they're as well understood as they might be. The relative simplicity of GroupSwim is something that I can see has genuine appeal.

]]> By: Brad King http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4821 Brad King Tue, 27 May 2008 04:33:51 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4821 Hey Dennis: I can say when we ran the Innovation Futures at Technology Review, our readers did a pretty decent job at figuring out when tipping points would be reached. But I don't think I did a good job overseeing that particular project for a variety of reasons: the main one being we didn't have the money to hire a proper community manager. The Iowa predictive market, in fact, has done well by politics: <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/" rel="nofollow">http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/</a> Hopefully we can agree that none of the examples from your post are actually WOC type systems. They are simply rated or searched systems. That is the fundamental issue. Nobody is truly using that type of system. I got a note today about Hubdub, a news predictive market, of which I have spent little time on -- but I plan to poke around. Hey Dennis:

I can say when we ran the Innovation Futures at Technology Review, our readers did a pretty decent job at figuring out when tipping points would be reached.

But I don't think I did a good job overseeing that particular project for a variety of reasons: the main one being we didn't have the money to hire a proper community manager.

The Iowa predictive market, in fact, has done well by politics: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

Hopefully we can agree that none of the examples from your post are actually WOC type systems. They are simply rated or searched systems.

That is the fundamental issue. Nobody is truly using that type of system.

I got a note today about Hubdub, a news predictive market, of which I have spent little time on — but I plan to poke around.

]]> By: Dennis Howlett http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-4820 Dennis Howlett Tue, 27 May 2008 04:14:33 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-4820 Hi Brad - I know what James was prosletizing in WOC and the 'rules' under which he saw the working of the concept. However, I don't see evidence of it working in the real world in the way described and I am not saying that popularity = WOC. I am doubtful for other reasons, not least of which seems the irrational way in which conclusions are being reached. Hi Brad – I know what James was prosletizing in WOC and the 'rules' under which he saw the working of the concept. However, I don't see evidence of it working in the real world in the way described and I am not saying that popularity = WOC. I am doubtful for other reasons, not least of which seems the irrational way in which conclusions are being reached.

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