Comments on: Crowds are dopes. So are individuals. At times. http://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/ never knowingly under opinionated Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:50:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Twitter « Analyst Views Weeklyhttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-191562 Twitter « Analyst Views Weekly Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:27:13 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-191562 [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...] [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...]

]]> By: Twitter | Blogs @ Northern Lighthttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-191560 Twitter | Blogs @ Northern Light Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:23:58 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-191560 [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...] [...] for its lack of scalability and the company’s lead architect, Blaine Cook, recently departed. Dennis Howlett of the blog AccMan comments on the scenario: “Right now I see way too many instances of instant forgiveness in the use of tools that are [...]

]]> By: Jasmin Tragashttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-189924 Jasmin Tragas Wed, 28 May 2008 02:17:34 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-189924 I enjoyed this post. Chewing on it. I also wonder if I get as much value out of Twitter now that I follow more people? It's a lucky dip some days. I enjoyed this post. Chewing on it.
I also wonder if I get as much value out of Twitter now that I follow more people? It’s a lucky dip some days.

]]> By: Jon Husbandhttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-189923 Jon Husband Wed, 28 May 2008 02:03:00 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-189923 I like, appreciate and agree with the points you have made. There are imo relatively few people exploring the less-shiny-bits of what is called social media (as you have here), or the probability that some of its leading lights aren't necessarily all that smart ... just loud, prolific and lucky to have been in the mix when things got going.It's just a pity that you couldn't convey this analysis and conclusion in 140 characters or less ;-)(Disclosure: I am not someone who thinks every blog posts needs to be three paragraphs or less to read the whole thing ... I actually read this one twice). I like, appreciate and agree with the points you have made. There are imo relatively few people exploring the less-shiny-bits of what is called social media (as you have here), or the probability that some of its leading lights aren’t necessarily all that smart … just loud, prolific and lucky to have been in the mix when things got going.

It’s just a pity that you couldn’t convey this analysis and conclusion in 140 characters or less ;-)

(Disclosure: I am not someone who thinks every blog posts needs to be three paragraphs or less to read the whole thing … I actually read this one twice).

]]> By: Brad Kinghttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-189766 Brad King Tue, 27 May 2008 03:53:56 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-189766 Here's why I like Iowa, other than it's run by a university with researchers:We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance. Here’s why I like Iowa, other than it’s run by a university with researchers:

We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance.

]]> By: Dennis Howletthttp://www.accmanpro.com/2008/05/27/crowds-are-dopes-so-are-individuals-at-times/comment-page-1/#comment-189765 Dennis Howlett Tue, 27 May 2008 03:52:24 +0000 http://www.accmanpro.com/?p=3070#comment-189765 Spigit offers a decent system but it is very much in the 'big league' Spigit offers a decent system but it is very much in the ‘big league’

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