Comments on: Can you see the brick wall?

By: Socio-collective financing | AccMan

Socio-collective financing | AccMan — Tue, 26 May 2009 11:26:59 +0000

[...] Friday the consensus was that while business is tough, the impact is patchy. That fits with what Gary Turner said in comments to my post Can you see the brick wall? Even so, I’m not getting a sense of a [...]

By: Gary Turner

Gary Turner — Thu, 21 May 2009 11:01:02 +0000

The general belief is that the UK began the slide into recession before the rest of Europe. Perhaps what your colleagues are detecting is a new wave wave of further economic contraction resulting from the other european economies having now firmly landed in recession, with secondary impact on already depressed UK exports.

A kind of recessionary reverb.

By: Tim Loving

Tim Loving — Thu, 21 May 2009 10:50:20 +0000

Anybody that can't see the brick wall has to be comatose or walking around with their eyes closed.

And no, the worst hasn't hit us yet. If the past is any guide to the future we should remember that the U.S. economy took seven years to regain lost production after the 1981-82 recession.

Simon Johnson, Chief Economist of the IMF in 2007 and 2008 believes that what we are facing could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression – because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. He sees a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances.

Thanks for the link Dennis – I know that Ubikwiti is a tough name to remember, but Uqikwiti?

By: Reflections on recession | called2account

Reflections on recession | called2account — Thu, 21 May 2009 08:40:11 +0000

[...] Can you see the brick wall? | AccMan . [...]

By: Tax Research UK » Reflections on recession

Tax Research UK » Reflections on recession — Thu, 21 May 2009 08:00:18 +0000

[...] Can you see the brick wall? | AccMan . [...]

By: Jon Reed

Jon Reed — Wed, 20 May 2009 16:58:09 +0000

I tend to be fairly pessimistic about global economic trends, and my weakness is that I tend to justify my views more on personal observations and gut vibe than crunching the macro numbers. But since many economists have been way off on this maybe my own views can live out there somewhere too. My opinion is that the worst is not yet over. Little things, like strange goings on with my own business credit lines – things that didn’t happen around Y2K or post 9/11. Or hearing from a senior SAP Financials consultant with all the skills that he hasn’t found work since February despite offering $80 an hour inclusive rates. On the other hand, the local brewery where I spend my fraction of free time is doing fine. Some industries are more insulated from this than others. Those who are not used to feeling this kind of pinch are advised not to just hang on but to try to reinvent. For example, I don’t think that the ERP consulting services is ever coming back as it once was. Those who were used to living off that market in some capacity have some thinking to do. On the other hand some firms with point solutions that work are really doing well right now (in the SAP world, Winshuttle and Panaya would be two such examples). Reinvent, go where the action is, expand skills, just don’t wait for it to get better. Ok, I’m officially rambling.

- Jon

By: Dennis Howlett

Dennis Howlett — Wed, 20 May 2009 15:25:44 +0000

Fair point Gary but I can tell you my crap fest antenna are on high alert.

By: Gary Turner

Gary Turner — Wed, 20 May 2009 15:21:07 +0000

Some subjective data for you – through the course of my (long) daily commute, I pass through several regional traffic systems. Not very scientific, but compared with a year ago I hit many fewer traffic jams. Average journey times are around 20% shorter.

Happy to be your economic canary in the coal mine when the jams start to grind once more, heck I might even start logging them properly and submit the logs to the BBC economic news desk.

Beyond that nonsense, all the economic data points and anecdotes I see or hear are completely inconsistent with each other. Which means it’s still very messy, some have bottomed out, some haven’t, some don’t know which way is up.

But nobody is lighting cigars with £50 notes.