I’ve been watching the video of Bill Gates keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Show. Before you click away, I have to say the demonstrations of how we’ll be using stuff – especially the three screen desk assembly (I’ve already written about my need for that kind of setup but can’t remember the link) are magical.
Plenty of people are commenting about this. The New York Times didn’t rate it much saying:
"But I think that what most people want from the next Windows isn’t more stuff added, but rather stuff to be taken away–like crashes, lockups, viruses, error messages and security holes."
More interesting is the analyst/pundit community take. Stowe Boyd says:
"2006 will be a bad, bad year for Microsoft."
Vinnie Marchandandi suggests:
"So I am thinking this is what Microsoft should really do – go back to its PC and consumer roots – things they really enjoy…But spin off the enterprise business – let some enterprise guys re-energize that business – SQLServer, Dynamics, corporate use of Office and more vigorously compete with SAP, Oracle, IBM and emerging SaaS and open source options. Or Microsoft can gradually lose CIOs as they increasingly lose patience with its delivery and quality issues."
(Thanks for the inspiration for the post title Vinnie)
I could go on but this is enough. I’m glad Vinnie has said this. Many of my critics believe Microsoft is so firmly rooted that nothing can displace it. But even David Carter , in talking about Microsoft and enterprise apps in 2005 said:
"Meanwhile, in Redmond, another US technology company was living in fantasy land."
What just about all those that believe in the Microsoft business vision are failing to understand is that if Microsoft has to capitulate in some way in the enterprise market, then it can kiss goodbye to any pretensions of owning the corporate desktop forever. "It will never relinquish Windows or Office" I hear people cry. – I’m sure it won’t. But Office could stand a fair chance of becoming part of what David Carter describes as ‘The Living Dead.’ And there are plenty of alternatives out there that are starting to look increasingly attractive.
If David is right then all you who are relying on Microsoft technology to drive your business could be left stranded over time. Because unless there is a coherent development platform – i.e. .NET that means something – then developers will be forced to move onto technologies that are moving forward. And these could well be those from the Open Source community.
It won’t happen today, tomorrow or even by the end of the year. But by the time Windows Vista and Office 12 hit the streets, the landscape could look very different to that which we see today.
But on the consumer front, I just love Gates’ vision. It’s how I’d like to see consumer computing evolve and where I’m sure Microsoft’s real future lays.
