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Have you lost faith in Microsoft?

by Dennis Howlett on March 26, 2006

Last week’s set of Microsoft pieces arrived while I’ve been away. I’ve read through a ton of posts and comments around the delay to the delivery of Vista, Microsoft’s new operating system. Daniel Lyons at Forbes’ was especially scathing. Referring to last week’s Vista press event, Daniel says:

Worst of all, I can’t believe Microsoft actually held this big nonevent “event” only a few days before announcing another screw-up in Vista. If Ballmer knew he was about to announce a delay and still had this event, he’s crazy. If he didn’t know Vista was about to slip again, then Microsoft is in worse shape than anyone realizes.

It didn’t get any better. At the BBC Brian Gammage, research vice-president at technology analysts Gartner is quoted:

“This means they don’t have the new system in place in new computers for consumers. The impact for the industry will be a disappointing one.”

Similar remarks were quoted at the FT’s online site as Microsoft announced a shake up at its Windows division:

“This is the other shoe dropping,” said Roger Kay, an analyst at Endpoint Technologies. “Missing the holiday season in 2006 was just unacceptable.”

If all this wasn’t bad enough, over in Australia, David Richards’ Smarthouse trumpeted:

Up to 60% of the code in the new consumer version of Microsoft new Vista operating system is set to be rewritten as the Company “scrambles” to fix internal problems a Microsoft insider has confirmed to SHN.

This set off a storm among bloggers. Dave Winer, hardly a Microsoft apologist but a powerful voice among technology bloggers said:

It’s unbelievable because if it’s true, there’s no way it’s shipping in 2007. If true it’s not just a setback, it’s a multi-billion-dollar debacle on the scale of Apple’s Copland (which, if you recall, resulted in regime change). Basically until someone from Microsoft confirms this, I’d give it zero credence.

Even now and with Robert Scoble Microsoft’s uber blogger insisting the story is untrue, the story refuses to go away. According to Vista Office Watch information has been received from a representative from Acer, a Microsoft partner:

We have also been told that up to 60% of the code will have some form of re writing or changes made. We are told that Microsoft is concerned at the impact that the delay will have on hardware manufacturers. We have raised our concerns directly with Microsoft.

Scoble replies saying:

Really, no matter what I, or anyone else says, there is no winning at this game. The Xbox team denies, on its blog, that Xbox programmers are moving over to Windows and confirms that Windows Vista is now feature complete so there won’t be any massive rewritting of Windows Vista code. The Windows team (and, yes, I’ve been calling around to friends on the team who’ll tell me the unpleasant truth) are totally denying that they will be rewriting any major pieces of code. They are in bug fix mode now, not in rewrite mode.

Neville Hobson suggests that someone senior at Microsoft needs to stand up and nail this story once and for all. Equally however, Neville notes that neither the FT nor the BBC have picked up on this story and that therefore it is a non-story. I think many folk are missing the point.

Blogging is a new medium and many of us are struggling to learn how best to use it. Spreading rumours is not helpful. However, I found Scoble’s attack on Smarthouse to be particularly harsh and unnecessary. One commenter, ‘Dmad’ nailed it:

So, end the confusion by either getting Brian Valentine or the Vista Release Manager on video to ask them the pointed questions. You can call all the “friends” you want, but until we hear it from them, and not filtered through you, this stuff will continue.

Scoble’s response:

Dmad: it’s on the Xbox team blog. I quoted the vice president of Waggener Edstrom. That’s good enough for now. Your protestations don’t mean a thing. You aren’t even willing to tell us who you are. So why, again, should I listen to someone who is probably working for a competitor?

Sadly, this kind of exchange demonstrates the kind of immaturity in handling corporate communications that deflects attention away from the issues and which serves to push people away and causes the very confusion Scoble is seeking to clear up. If you were publicly attacked in the same way as Dmad and others, would you not worry about what you say? I certainly would. This is not one way traffic.

Scoble is regularly attacked by those who use his tolerance for all to come and comment at his place as a platform for their personal agendas and vendettas against all things Microsoft. However, if the world’s most read tech blogger can’t rise above the heated exchanges and recognise the need for the Big Guns to come out and convince the world, then I’m sorry. But he’s doing himself, Microsoft and the cause of social software a disservice. Regardless of what Scoble says, corporate buyers, where the Big Bucks really are, don’t care about his views. They want to hear the trusted spokespeople they already know. Given all the heated debate and lack of clarification, have you lost faith in Microsoft? I haven’t – yet.

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  • Dennis - the title of the post assumes that people had faith to lose: that may not be the case. I tracked the posts on Scoble's blogs (and there is considerably more heat than light being generated there!), and while I agree with the disbelief that 60% of Vista could be rewritten by November, I haven't seen anybody deny the comment by the Acer guy in Australia (Smarthome was quoting somebody else, not generating it themselves - or if they were it should be easily verifiable/deniable by checking with Acer), and I haven't seen an official denial that 60% of the code (which is entirely without context, BTW - 60% of what exactly?) needs rewriting REGARDLESS of timeframe.

    Unfortunately MS has created this rod for its own back - they have a less than glorious history of competition by press release, creating sufficient uncertainty in the marketplace to prevent people going to a competitor's product while delaying their own releases. I have no particular beef with MS products - I quite happily use XP/Office etc at home and work - but I have serious issues with MS marketing and management, and I didn't have a lot of faith to lose in the first place.

    PS - aren't you supposed to be doing something else right now - this isn't "blogging light"?
  • We're in agreement on much of what you say Ric. Many firms and vendors have bet the proberbial farm on MSFT. As this is now an MSM story, they need a response. They have to take this to a higher level and the blogs are not where to do it for the corporate buyer.

    I'm agreed their PR has been pretty appalling. Daniel's post is testament to that. But if they don't take any lessons from this then quite frankly, Scoble's blowing smoke and not much else.
  • It certainly looks like we don't have faith in social software; otherwisw why do we just disregard Scoble when it gets 'serious' and start demand some old command and control PR action. Maybe, despite the rhetoric even bloggers feel more comfortable with what is familiar.
  • Not at all Trevor - my view is this has gone beyond Scoble. That happened the minute he got personal with Smarthouse.
  • Trevor

    The issue isn't with the social software (yes - I take your point that several people were looking for "real" executives at MS to respond). I don't disregard Scoble's take, and I don't discount the discussion just because it took place on a blog. I'm not even all that fussed that Scoble reacted badly (which WAS a shame, but perhaps understandable - have you seen some of the cr*p that gets put in his comments sometimes?). My point is that nobody seems to deny the claim from the representative of a MS hardware partner, and I think Scoble missed the point slightly - it's not about the "60%" or the supposed timeframe, but that there is obviously a problem with the Vista release, and nobody wants to admit it.
  • You've zeroed in on the key point, Dennis:

    "Sadly, this kind of exchange demonstrates the kind of immaturity in handling corporate communications that deflects attention away from the issues and which serves to push people away and causes the very confusion Scoble is seeking to clear up."

    Well said.
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